Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
524 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Mainly Far Southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will increase markedly later this afternoon
and this evening as an upper level storm system moves into the
area from the west. Surface based instability will remain limited,
but elevated instability will be sufficient for storms to pose a
risk of large hail. There is some indication that a bowing complex
of storms may evolve later this evening and overnight and sweep
across the area, and if this indeed occurs, at least a limited
damaging wind threat will also develop. A low tornado risk will
also exist across mainly far southeast Oklahoma late this
afternoon and evening, although the higher tornado probabilities
will remain farther south, closer to a warm front that will remain
well south of the Red River.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially in places
where several rounds of storms occur this afternoon and tonight.
Localized flooding issues may develop as a result.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
          Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ending early Saturday. Gusty
south winds will develop Sunday and Monday ahead of the next storm
system that will affect the area late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Conditions appear to be favorable for severe weather with this
system, but the timing of the highest severe weather chances remains
in doubt.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management personnel and first responders should monitor
updated forecasts and outlooks in advance of the storm system
Tuesday and Wednesday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.