Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY & TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Early Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe weather is expected from late this morning
through tonight as several rounds of thunderstorms impact the
region. A powerful storm system will move through the area today
with widespread severe thunderstorms expected by midday, first
cross eastern Oklahoma spreading into western Arkansas by mid to
late afternoon. Large instability and shear will support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including potentially
high impact severe hazards such as very large hail and numerous
tornadoes.

Additionally, rich moisture content will lead to heavy rainfall
and flash flood potential as several rounds of thunderstorms
impact the same locations through tonight. Some areas have seen
recent rainfall of 2-5 inches already over the last two days with
additional heavy rainfall causing localized flash flooding
concerns across the region.

The final round of storms should begin to push through eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas toward the end of the period as
a cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of dry weather. More rounds of thunderstorms could also again
lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns for some locations.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be prepared for
severe weather operations for the next couple of days and be
ready to respond to impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.